January so far has been warmer than average but this week the UK is about to be engulfed in cold icy conditions with snow forecast for many parts of Scotland and England tonight and tomorrow followed by below average temperatures from Monday onwards.
However, recently scientists have been looking closely at a relatively new area of science and how abrupt changes in the stratosphere are affecting our weather. Forecasters have been monitoring abrupt increases in temperatures way up in the stratosphere and that it is actually warming which is a possible precursor to cold weather in the UK. This phenomena has been given the name of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and in 2009 forecasters saw a similar rise in stratospheric temperatures which was followed by extremely cold temperatures and most of the UK being covered by snow.
However, the science is not strongly supported at current, not all SSW events have led to cold spells and not all cold spells are a result from SSW. The forecasters struggle modelling forecasts when this phenomena occurs and find the atmosphere to be very complicated and variable. Confidence is growing though, that this SSW event is about to cause cooler conditions. Whether it will be as severe as the 2009 and 2010 cold periods it is not sure. Snowfall is predicted over the next few days and cold temperatures are to continue into next week.
Whatever happens, monitoring SSWs is very interesting and a new area in scientific investigations and monitoring. Understanding changes in the Stratosphere and their relationships with the atmosphere and our climate, may give a better long term forecasting technique.
Will we be seeing scenes like this again?
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